The Worst Hand That Wins
Nine-five offsuit. Statistically, it's bottom 20% of starting hands. In a game where pocket aces win 85% heads-up, 95o wins about 32%. Most players fold it without thinking.
But that's exactly why I play it. And why I named this site after it.
In poker—and in markets—the obvious plays are priced in. Everyone knows aces are strong. Everyone knows NVDA prints money. The edge isn't in knowing what's good. It's in knowingwhen something weak becomes strong. When position, timing, and opponent weakness turn a garbage hand into a winning one.
95o is a reminder: play the situation, not the cards.
Poker and Trading
The overlap between poker and trading isn't metaphorical—it's structural. Both are games of:
- →Incomplete information: You never have the full picture. You estimate, update, and decide.
- →Expected value: Winning a single hand (or trade) means nothing. Long-term EV is everything.
- →Bankroll management: Position sizing is how you survive variance. Go broke = game over.
- →Reading opponents: Who's on the other side of the trade? What do they know that you don't?
- →Emotional discipline: Tilt kills. Whether it's a bad beat or a red portfolio, staying rational is the edge.
Every quant trader I respect has a poker background. It's not coincidence.
Key Concepts
Position is Everything
In poker, acting last gives you information advantage. In markets, knowing who's positioned where—and who needs to exit—is half the edge. The best trades come when you understand the forced flows.
Bet Sizing Tells the Story
A 3x pot overbet means something different than a half-pot value bet. Similarly, unusual volume or options flow tells you something about conviction. Read the sizing.
Fold Equity is Real
Sometimes you win by making others fold—not by having the best hand. In markets, sometimes the trade is to be the one who forces the other side to cover. Understanding pressure points is underrated.
Variance ≠ Skill
You can play perfectly and lose. You can play terribly and win. The goal is to make +EV decisions repeatedly and let the law of large numbers work in your favor. Process over outcome.